Ngomhlaka-18 Septhemba, i-US Federal Reserve yamemezela ukwehliswa kwenani lenzalo lesisekelo samaphoyinti angu-50, kwaqala ngokusemthethweni umjikelezo omusha wokunciphisa imali nokuqeda iminyaka emibili yokuqinisa. Lesi sinyathelo sigqamisa imizamo ye-Fed yokubhekana nezinselelo ezinkulu ezibangelwa ukukhula kancane komnotho wase-US.
Njengoba sivela emnothweni omkhulu kunayo yonke emhlabeni, noma yiziphi izinguquko kunqubomgomo yezimali yase-US nakanjani zinemiphumela efinyelela kude ezimakethe zezimali zomhlaba, ezohwebo, ukugeleza kwezimali kanye neminye imikhakha. I-Fed ayivamisile ukusebenzisa ukusika kwamaphuzu angama-50 ngesikhathi esisodwa, ngaphandle uma ibona ubungozi obukhulu.
Ukwehliswa okuphawulekayo kulokhu kubangele izingxoxo nokukhathazeka okusabalele mayelana nesimo somnotho womhlaba, ikakhulukazi umthelela wokuncishiswa kwamanani emigomeni yezimali yamanye amazwe kanye nokuhamba kwezimali. Kulo mongo oyinkimbinkimbi, indlela umnotho womhlaba wonke - ikakhulukazi i-China - esabela ngayo emiphumeleni ye-spillover isiphenduke indawo okugxilwe kuyo ezingxoxweni zamanje zenqubomgomo yezomnotho.
Isinqumo se-Fed simele ukugudluka okubanzi okuya ekuncishisweni kwesilinganiso ngezinye iminotho emikhulu (ngaphandle kwase-Japan), okukhuthaza ukuthambekela okuvunyelanisiwe komhlaba wonke kokunciphisa imali. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, lokhu kukhombisa ukukhathazeka okwabiwe mayelana nokukhula kancane komhlaba wonke, lapho amabhange amakhulu ehlisa izinga lenzalo ukuze agqugquzele umsebenzi wezomnotho futhi akhulise ukusetshenziswa kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali.
Ukunciphisa umhlaba kungase kuveze kokubili imiphumela emihle nemibi emnothweni womhlaba. Izilinganiso zenzalo ephansi zisiza ekudambiseni izingcindezi zokwehla komnotho, ukunciphisa izindleko zokuboleka kwezinkampani futhi kugqugquzele ukutshalwa kwezimali kanye nokusetshenziswa kwezimali, ikakhulukazi emikhakheni efana nezindawo ezithengiswayo nezokukhiqiza, evinjwe amanani enzalo aphezulu. Kodwa-ke, ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, izinqubomgomo ezinjalo zingakhuphula amazinga esikweletu futhi zikhulise ingozi yenkinga yezezimali. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukwehliswa kwezinga elididiyelwe emhlabeni wonke kungase kuholele ekwehlweni kokuncintisana kwemali, nokwehla kwenani ledola laseMelika kubangele namanye amazwe ukuba alandele okufanayo, okukhuphula izinga lokushintshaniswa kwemali.
E-China, ukuncishiswa kwezinga le-Fed kungase kufake ingcindezi yokwazisa ku-yuan, okungaba nomthelela omubi embonini yokuthekelisa yase-China. Le nselelo ihlanganiswa wukusimama komnotho wamazwe ngamazwe ngobuvila, okufaka ingcindezi eyengeziwe yokusebenza kwabahwebi baseChina. Ngakho-ke, ukugcina ukuqina kwezinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-yuan ngenkathi kugcinwa ukuncintisana kokuthekelisa kuzoba umsebenzi obalulekile e-China njengoba izulazula ekuphumeni kokuhamba kwe-Fed.
Ukwehliswa kwezinga le-Fed nakho kungase kube nomthelela ekuhambeni kwemali futhi kubangele ukushintshashintsha kwezimakethe zezimali zaseChina. Amanani aphansi ase-US angase ahehe ukungena kwezimali zamazwe ngamazwe e-China, ikakhulukazi ezimakethe zayo zamasheya nezakhiwo. Esikhathini esifushane, lokhu kungena kungakhuphula amanani entengo futhi kukhuthaze ukukhula kwemakethe. Kodwa-ke, isibonelo esingokomlando sibonisa ukuthi ukugeleza kwemali enkulu kungaba nokuguquguquka okukhulu. Uma izimo zemakethe yangaphandle zishintsha, imali enkulu ingaphuma ngokushesha, okubangele ukuguquguquka okukhulu kwezimakethe. Ngakho-ke, iShayina kufanele iqaphe ngeso elibukhali ukuguquguquka kwezimali, igweme ubungozi obungase bube khona ezimakethe futhi igweme ukuntengantenga kwezimali okubangelwa umnyakazo wemali eqagelayo.
Ngaso leso sikhathi, ukuncishiswa kwezinga le-Fed kungafaka ingcindezi ezindaweni zokushintshiselana zakwamanye amazwe zaseChina kanye nohwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe. Idola laseMelika elintekenteke linyusa ukuntengantenga kwempahla yedola laseShayina, okwenza kube nezinselelo zokuphatha izimali zayo zokushintshisana ngemali yangaphandle. Ukwengeza, ukwehla kwedola kungase kucekele phansi ukuncintisana kokuthekelisa kwe-China, ikakhulukazi esimeni sesidingo esibuthakathaka somhlaba wonke. Ukwazisa i-yuan kuzophinde kucindezele amamajini enzuzo yabathumeli bangaphandle base-China. Ngenxa yalokho, i-China izodinga ukusebenzisa izinqubomgomo zezimali eziguquguqukayo kanye namasu okuphatha ukushintshaniswa kwemali yangaphandle ukuze kuqinisekiswe uzinzo emakethe yokuhwebelana kwamanye amazwe phakathi nokushintsha kwezimo zomnotho womhlaba.
Ibhekene nezingcindezi zokuntengantenga kwezinga lokushintshisana okubangelwa ukwehla kwedola, i-China kufanele ihlose ukugcina uzinzo ohlelweni lwezimali lwamazwe ngamazwe, igweme ukwazisa kwe-yuan okweqile okungase kucekele phansi ukuncintisana kokuthekelisa.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ekuphenduleni ukuguquguquka okungenzeka kwezomnotho kanye nemakethe yezezimali okubangelwa yi-Fed, i-China kumele iqhubeke nokuqinisa ukuphathwa kwengozi ezimakethe zayo zezezimali futhi ikhulise ukulingana kwezimali ukuze kuncishiswe izingozi ezibangelwa ukuhamba kwemali yamazwe ngamazwe.
Lapho ibhekene nokungaqiniseki kwezimali zomhlaba wonke, i-China kufanele ithuthukise ukwakheka kwayo kwempahla ngokwandisa ingxenye yempahla yeqophelo eliphezulu futhi inciphise ukuchayeka kwezingcuphe kakhulu, ngaleyo ndlela ithuthukise ukuzinza kohlelo lwayo lwezezimali. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, i-China kufanele iqhubeke nokuqhubekisela phambili ukwenziwa kwe-yuan yamazwe ngamazwe, yandise izimakethe zezimali ezihlukene kanye nokubambisana kwezezimali futhi ikhulise izwi layo kanye nokuncintisana ekubuseni kwezezimali emhlabeni jikelele.
I-China kufanele futhi ikhuthaze kancane kancane ukusungulwa kwezimali kanye noshintsho lwebhizinisi ukuze kuthuthukiswe inzuzo kanye nokuqina komkhakha wayo wezezimali. Phakathi kokuthambekela komhlaba wonke kokulula okuvunyelanisiwe kwezimali, amamodeli emali engenayo asekelwe kumkhawulo enzalo azoba ngaphansi kwengcindezi. Ngakho-ke, izikhungo zezimali zaseShayina kufanele zihlole ngenkuthalo imithombo emisha yemali engenayo - njengokuphathwa kwengcebo kanye ne-fintech, ukuhlukahluka kwebhizinisi kanye nokuqanjwa kabusha kwesevisi - ukuqinisa ukuncintisana okuphelele.
Ngokuhambisana namasu kazwelonke, izikhungo zezimali zaseShayina kufanele zibambe iqhaza ngenkuthalo kuForamu Yokusebenzelana kwe-China ne-Afrika Uhlelo Lokusebenza lwaseBeijing (2025-27) futhi zibambe iqhaza ekubambisaneni kwezezimali ngaphansi kwe-Belt and Road Initiative. Lokhu kubandakanya ukuqinisa ucwaningo ngentuthuko yamazwe ngamazwe neyesifunda, ukujulisa ukusebenzisana nezikhungo zezimali zamazwe ngamazwe kanye nezinhlangano zezezimali zasekhaya emazweni afanelekile kanye nokuthola ukufinyelela okukhulu olwazini lwemakethe yasekhaya kanye nokwesekwa ukuze kwandiswe ngobuhlakani nangokuqhubekayo ukusebenza kwezimali kwamanye amazwe. Ukubamba iqhaza ngenkuthalo ekubuseni kwezezimali emhlabeni wonke nasekumisweni kwemithetho kuzophinde kuthuthukise ikhono lezikhungo zezimali zase-China lokuncintisana emazweni ngamazwe.
Ukwehliswa kwezinga lakamuva le-Fed kwazisa isigaba esisha sokunciphisa imali emhlabeni, okwethula kokubili amathuba nezinselele zomnotho womhlaba. Njengezwe lesibili ngobukhulu bomnotho emhlabeni, i-China kufanele isebenzise amasu okusabela asebenzayo futhi aguquguqukayo ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukuzinza nentuthuko esimeme kulesi simo somhlaba esiyinkimbinkimbi. Ngokuqinisa ukulawulwa kwezinhlekelele, ngokuthuthukisa inqubomgomo yezimali, ukukhuthaza ukuqanjwa kabusha kwezezimali kanye nokujulisa ukubambisana kwamazwe ngamazwe, i-China ingathola isiqiniseko esikhulu phakathi kwezigigaba zokungaqiniseki kwezomnotho emhlabeni wonke, iqinisekise ukusebenza okuqinile komnotho wayo nohlelo lwezezimali.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Oct-08-2024